MAGA builds a (Nick) Shirley Temple
A sitting governor's career is the first sacrifice
You’re here because you’re watching politics get body-slammed by digital culture and content creators. I’m here because I’m the only one who can guide you through it.
“As soon as you confront them about the fraud, they get angry.”
It’s time we update Reagan’s old adage about the most terrifying words in the English language being: “I’m from the Government, and I’m here to help.” In 2026, the 10 most terrifying words are: “I’m from YouTube, I’m here to accuse you of crimes.”
Figuring out where to start in the Shirley Saga is no easy feat, so I’m gonna get in here and make it about me. Not only did I select the self-described independent journalist as one of 10 creators to watch this year, but I also tucked in a mild prediction about his impact. Back on Oct. 23, after it seemed to me like the White House was taking inspo from his content, I wrote:
“… it might be time to start asking whether these D.C.-level directives are actually trickling up from the influencers the admin regularly communicates with.”
By the end of this piece, you’re gonna see how that hypothesis was proven 100% correct. To get there, let’s start with the person holding the match at the center of the fraud firestorm, Nick Shirley.
In his own words: 23 years old, 100% independent, helped expose the border crisis, 1st American to ever film inside CECOT, briefed President Trump in the White House about ANTIFA, ended Tim Walz career.
I’d like to add a little more dimension to his description, if I may:
Started with counternarrative videos that got him a lot of shit (ex: going to Ukraine to question the reality of the war, multiple pro-El Salvador prison videos, paying Hispanic workers to pretend to protest in front of the White House)
Skyrocketed among the right-wing ranks in September during Portland protests
Has visited the White House three times, done one video featuring a ride along with federal agents and interview with AG Pam Bondi
Won the O’Keefe Media “Citizen Journalist of the Year” award at Mar-a-Lago
LinkedIn read-through aside, Nick Shirley at his core is the Native-Born Son of Just-Asking-Questions culture. This sect operates on a God-given right to inquiry. They believe any person they ambush carries the burden of proof for crimes they are about to be accused of on camera. Stonewalling or skepticism is an admission of guilt.1
These commandments, instilled in him by his Do-Your-Own-Research Forefathers, paired with Shirley’s very deliberate content strategy, brought over 500,000,000 viewers to his series exposing fraud in Minnesota. Under all that pressure, Gov. Tim Walz chose to take the exit rather than take the heat.
HOW HE DID IT
PERFORMANCE: “I Investigated Minnesota’s Billion Dollar Fraud Scandal” drops across platforms on Dec. 26. It’s 42 minutes of Nick and “David” driving around, ringing doorbells at daycares, and demanding to know, generally, where federal money is going by the millions. If no one gives them an answer at any location, they consider it fraud and add the corresponding grant amount to a tally. Things escalate as we discover Nick is accompanied by masked guards, leading potential interview subjects (idk what to call them, really) to worry the team is from ICE. Police come and threaten trespassing violations, and the video ends with a claim that the duo has identified $110M worth of fraud.
The full video on X has 139,000,000 impressions.
According to Nick, that’s the most that any long-form video has gotten not made by … Mr. Beast.
Elon Musk said it’s outperformed the “daily readership of all newspapers in America combined.”
Nick said his focus on X was deliberate because of who he knew he could reach specifically (next section).
The clips he’s cut and posted from the full video have netted another 153,000,000 views.
Vertical cuts hit 100M views on his Instagram alone.
COLLABORATIONS: Ok, like who the fuck is “David from Minnesota?” Nick introduces him as someone who has been investigating this fraud for years. “David” himself adds that he has some of the financial information because of “some contacts at the Capitol going back many, many years.” I found it a little sus, personally, when mentioned he has driven by one of the daycare facilities more than “40 times.” But he’s continuing to be a staple in this story.
Nick drops a new hour-long interview with “David” that opens with the assertion that “this is the worst fraud in human history.”
In their previous video, David said the estimated fraud was “revised from $7-10B and maybe more” to “more like $8B.” Not really a revision then, but sure.
In this video, they have upped the ante to between $80-100B in fraud — not seeing any math for this revision either.
Jacqueline Sweet, who is kind of the GOAT as far as I’m concerned, was also confused by “David.” So she published this in The Intercept:
Nick Shirley shook off a GOP candidate for governor who claimed she worked with him on all of this, saying, “I have no idea who this lady is.” Lol.
MONETIZATION: This is social media, of course he’s securing the bag in all of this.
First up: Hoodies. This is where I start having an amazing time. One of the key viral moments of this escapade comes when Nick discovers the sign at one of the daycare centers says “learing” instead of learning. Like a true entrepreneur, it gets immediately pressed onto his signature grey sweatshirt to sell for $50. BUT WAIT. The description for the item reads as follows:
“Quality Learing Center a massive fraud so obvious they couldn’t even spell learning correctly.”
Maybe you have some learing to do yourself, Mr. Shirley — you are missing a VERB.
Second: He’s been promoting his CashApp and Venmo a ton so I can’t even fathom how much money he’s bringing in right now.
Third: He asked for people to donate to his private security at the “Blackline Guardian Fund” which provides “elite protective services subsidies, school and church safety training, and community threat-response support for those facing real danger with limited resources.”
Fourth: The Polymarket of it all … he’s wearing their grey hoodie in a lot of his content and they have a well-established relationship. Polymarket has promoted a number of their wagers off the back of this viral moment, I can’t help but speculate a little myself on whether he’s getting any kickbacks.
ENGAGEMENT: It’s piss-poor viral strategy if you’re collecting millions of views with no engagement. The kids call it “farming” for this reason — there are reliable ways to reap the seeds of engagement these days. AI slop can get you there, Nick knows. But there’s no aura in AI. Not in comparison to the almighty ratio.
His incessant, persistent replies to Tim Walz are one of the reasons this story has stuck. Anything the MN governor has posted on X has been met with a “ratio” — when Nick’s reply outperforms the original post.
This drew more and more attention to Walz’s avoidance of a story that was never going to be shelved, especially not once hundreds of millions of people consumed content that confidently rejected the innocence of MN’s entire Somali population, labeling them fraudsters outside the law.
APPEARANCES: Nick ghosted me on email last week so I don’t expect a response to this, but I want to know if he’s slept at all in the past week. Because in addition to his own content, he’s hit up:2
Fox News and Riley Gaines, for the premiere episode of her new podcast
A surprising number of podcasts in the business/finance sector: Patrick Bet-David (millions and millions of views), the All-In Podcast, Andrei Jikh, Iced Coffee Hour hosted by finance content giant Graham Stephan.
To that last point, Nick said something so nonchalantly I almost missed it: Elon Musk had reposted him or MN fraud content 40 times in one day. That delivers us (praise be) to our takeaway in all of this.
WHO PAID ATTENTION
I flagged two things for you to remember above:
Nick’s specific focus on X
My now battle-tested theory
ONE: “The most powerful people in the world use X.”
Here’s an excerpt of Nick explaining his prioritization of X over YouTube.
“You’re getting more consumers and less producers. The producers are on X. The people that are making the changes in the world, they’re on X … the government, they’re on X. You have all the most powerful people literally getting information from people just like me, who are posting on X.”
This is fantastic free advertising for a platform otherwise constantly (and currently) embroiled in scandal. Elon Musk has spent the past two years picking civilians to amplify out of the ether, hurling them brief notoriety among nationalists and natalists and nazis. This random selection was the next-best case scenario for Nick Shirley, who Musk has heaped praise on.
TWO: Flipping the content funnel.
It’s always an audience of one. I was hesitant to publish my suspicion that Canal Street had been cleared in New York in response to viral content about the street’s immigrant population. Just felt like a reach, in ordinary times. But this time, we know Nick Shirley reached the Executive Producer:
Trump reposted one of Nick’s clips on Truth Social at 1:30 in the morning — that is certified Phone in Hand Time for POTUS.
Then real changes came:
Freezing childcare payments, pending documentation, nationwide
Investigating alleged fraud in MN Head Start programs
Reviewing the state’s unemployment insurance
Halting all grant payments and suspending thousands over suspected fraud
Launching an investigation into public housing assistance abuse
Deploying 2,000 DHS agents to Minneapolis area
Opening more federal investigations, starting with California
So why did Trump reward a 23-year-old with a camera and some questions? Because the president got something he wanted: Tim Walz self-deporting from the political picture — and he didn’t even have to lift a finger.
Loose ends back on Thursday!
Benny Johnson screamed at his producers on air for not booking Nick
This is probably going to annoy a lot of people, but what the heck! It wouldn't be the first time. But who is going to listen to a fraudster who is only 23? I can hardly wait till he gets religion and starts a new church.
Learned a lot. Polymarket connection all new to me.